Refract

Friday, April 09, 2004

A couple of quick thoughts about global warming.

First, where are these measurements taken? Airports. What is there a lot of at airports? Concrete, asphalt, etc. What do those surfaces do well? Store and emit heat. Doing what to the air temperature around them? Increasing it. By about how much? Oh, say 5-10 degrees. What kind of increases are we seeing over the past few decades? Oh, say a couple of degrees. So basically, we're trying to measure the increase of a few tenths of a degree each year in an area with 10 degree difference from the nearby air temperature? What kind of margin of error does one have there?

Second, the sun does not emit a constant amount of energy. If one graphs the amount of energy the sun has emitted since we started measuring it and plots it against the average global temperature, there is a significant correlation.

Third, correlation does NOT mean causation, no matter how much one would like it to. Just because we've been increasing the amount of greenhouse gases we produce and that has correlated to an increase in global temperature does not mean that the greenhouse gases are responsible for it. Just because the sun has been emitting a different amount of energy that correlates to changes in the global temperature does not mean the sun is the cause of it. Things often have many complex causes and effects.

Nobody has analyzed this critically, everybody is just out to prove something: oohh, look at us, we're all going to die, better stop driving SUVs. Or, oohh, look, it's all bullshit, it's okay, so I can keep driving my Hummer.


Bad scientists make the baby jeebus cry.