Refract

Sunday, November 10, 2002

Why we shouldn't go to war in Iraq:

1. Iraq poses no immediate threat to the United States and only a marginal threat to the Middle East, or, more specifically, Israel. While they do possess the capability to strike against their neighbors, even a madman like Saddam would realize that to do so would be a suicidal folly in light of historic reactions and Bush's attitude. Threats should be sufficient. Suppose Saddam does acquire nuclear capabilities. Again, even a madman like him would realize that to use them would result in the catastrophic and immediate obliteration of himself and his nation--not to mention the world--which would mean nothing to rule over and thus no gain for himself.

2. If we go to war, a ground offensive may be necessary. Who wants to sacrifice so many American and Iraqi civilian lives in urban guerilla warfare?

3. Pursuing an offensive without the support of the UN is tantamount to giving the go-ahead for every nation in the world to do whatever it wants. While the UN is clearly deeply flawed, that is not a sufficient reason to make it as obsolete as the League of Nations. It is still a worthwhile organization whose flaws are quite repairable. The US may be the most powerful nation in the world, but that doesn't give it the right to shirk its responsibilities to itself and the world. The US should be a great leader and role model, not a great bully.

4. If the war results in heavy Iraqi civilian casualties, it has the potential to start a holy war against Christians and Muslims that could last centuries. Nobody stands to gain from that.

5. This action is likely to spur increased terrorist attacks. While the threat of terrorism has been blown out of proportion due to the zealous fear-mongering of the Bush administration and the very real, but singular, devastation of the events of September 11, war in Iraq may give us a real reason to be afraid.

6. The American populace has been given no concrete plan for reconstruction of Iraq following a military campaign. Perhaps this is because the Adminstration has chosen not to reveal their plans, or perhaps it is because these plans have not yet been drawn up. If it is the former, then this argument shall be considered invalid, however, if the latter, we are only digging ourselves deeper into trouble. If leadership of Iraq is removed, new leadership must be immediately instated. Not doing so could be even more catastrophic than we can dream of.

7. Once a plan for reconstruction of Iraq has been established, and once the military campaign has completed, we will need to devote an untold number of years in the region at great financial cost.

8. War in Iraq has the implied goal of control of Iraq's massive oil deposits. Would the costs of the war be not better spent on researching alternative fuels in order to reduce our dependency on other nations? Clearly, war is expensive, and these costs will have to be removed from more fruitful, albeit long-term, efforts.

9. As stated in point 8, war in Iraq is yet another short-term solution to a long-term issue. We as Americans and global citizens must take the responsibility to look beyond the immediate future and consider our long-term needs. This war surely has the potential to solve a limited number of short-term issues, but its consequences--expected and unexpected--are likely to be far greater than anything war can solve. Look at WWII: few people claim that US involvement was a bad idea. But they forget that the atrocities of WWII (or Korea or Vietnam for that matter) would likely not have happened if it were not for WWI. We must pay attention to these things and look to tomorrow before deciding what to do today.

Why we should go to war in Iraq:

1. The Iraqi people are oppressed and destitute under Saddam's reign. A regime change may reverse this.

2. The US could gain control of precious oil supplies.

3. Saddam would no longer have control of Iraq and would thus not pose a threat to the United States or its allies anymore.

4. I cannot think of any other positive consequences: if you can, please post a comment and let me know, I'd very much like to hear them.